Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."